China and Canada are the only two major economies that refuse to negotiate with Trump. If Carney really cared about us, he would be spending his time on this continent fixing trade agreements with Trump. Unfortunately, he believes we can make up lost demand from our largest customer and closest Allie. How? One of the main reasons our two economies vibe so well is because it takes less logistics to arrive at market. What will happen to our economy when many of our companies relocate operations to save on transportation costs  to accommodate the business owners? Anyone who thinks this will not occur is foolish.  Even Carney voted to move Brookfield to the U.S. to save money. 

Canadians fail to recognize we will always be dependent on the US economically and militarily. Blame Trump as much as you want for our current economy, but it all started in 2015 with Trudeau.  This is why we need to brush aside our hurt feelings and demand Carney begin negotiations with Trump. Both sides will benefit. Trump knows this. But he is also aware how weak Carney is and knows the longer this goes on the easier the negotiations on the next CUSMA will be.  His tariffs are not to blame for our situation but rather our pathetic voting habits are. 

Without providing evidence, people say Trump is corrupt. Maybe he is, but I doubt it.  There certainly is no concrete evidence. What can you possibly bribe a person with who has six-billion dollars and the best government pension? Nothing at all. Interest at 0.01% will still earn him $5m per month. This is why, no matter how bizarre his ideas and behaviours are, I believe the intent of his policies are to benefit the average American, not himself. Carney on the other hand has a far way to go to get to the Billionaires Club and appears to be doing everything in his power to get there. His sole strategy involves making Canadians poor.  

It must be remembered that PM Carney was Trudeau’s main advisor for five years.  His coaching did nothing to stop our standard of living from falling off a cliff and encouraged debt to the point where Canada is on the road to going broke. His policies helped increase violent crimes, accommodated a record number of overdoses by allowing “Safe-Supply” in  certain provinces, pushed home prices to the stratosphere via mass immigration, and weakened personal rights. Him and his entourage also do not care  about the social decay taking place across the country. Specifically, every year food bank usage breaks records and there is an estimated 85,000 homeless (20,000 of which are children and youth) in Ontario alone.  He also allows 5% of the population that receives $32b annually to decide economic growth and test private property rights, all the while taxing  the greenhouse gas that is literally responsible for all life on earth.

Financially, the U.S. government is worse off than Canada’s.  They need revenue, just like we do. How governments manage this differs.  Morons like Carney prefers to tax carbon which deters foreign investment whereas Trump likes to tax imports which so far has resulted in $9.6trillion in total U.S. and foreign investment (Investments – The White House).   

Trump has stated on a few occasions that Canada makes nothing that Americans need. This is simply not true. Without Canada America would be a failure. The U.S. desperately needs our resources and relies heavily on our electricity. And, if Canada ever gets its act together, they will be the biggest buyers of our rare earth minerals. Certainly, in the decades ahead they will need more of what we offer today.

We have far more in common with the US than any other country and always will. But, for some reason, Canadians seem fine with our Prime Minister choosing to negotiate trade with a mass murdering dictator on the other side of the planet rather the one next door to us who believes in democratic values and provides most of our national security at no cost. If Canadians continue this behaviour, it will confirm that we are no longer the nation we were eleven years ago. Perhaps its time for us to chip in and if tariffs help finance our security, we don’t have any right to complain.  It also adds fuel to the debate for Canada to become the 51^st or break into smaller independent countries. The latter would be ideal. 

There is too much change taking place too quickly that will undermine the global economy. Rational thought, in both finance and politics, is lacking.  The stock markets are extremely over-valued and do not reflect the risks. The TSX and the S&P 500 (Shiller PE Ratio - Multpl) is roughly 25% and 55% higher than its historical average, respectively.  In times like this, it is better to wait on the sidelines for the markets to come to you.

We are being led by a Prime Minister with ethics that Canadians believe Trump has:

• Background: Where is Carney’s skin in the game? He has 97% of his wealth outside of Canada, with 91% being U.S. investments. One of which is Brookfield. According to his SEDI filings, deferred share rights and option grants in Brookfield as of 2024 totaled 539,136 shares (pre-split). As of this month, Carney’s holdings are in-the-money to the tune of $36m.

• “Conveniently, Carney’s election pledges also line up with major Brookfield investments. At the leaders’ debate, he praised Westinghouse, a nuclear firm he helped acquire while at Brookfield. His housing plan promotes pre-fab homes, directly benefiting Modulaire. His AI policy props up Compass Data Centers and Data4. All Brookfield, all profit lining his pockets.  “Canada’s Prime Minister cannot be trusted to make decisions on housing, energy, or AI when his decisions, or those of his Ministers and civil servants, could boost his own future payouts from Brookfield. Even if he’s not making decisions directly about those companies, broader policy initiatives that advance these sectors will directly benefit his future earnings.”” Sell The Assets To End Carney’s Conflicts - Conservative Party of Canada

• Carney continues throwing money at Ukraine rather to our own dilapidated military. He pledged $4.3b on June 17th and $2.5b in December to them.  Why?  Perhaps it is because he wants more contracts for Brookfield during the reconstruction of Ukraine. The company, via its subsidiary Westinghouse,  will already be supplying the nuclear reactors and fuel to Ukraine. The company reportedly secured a $4.5b contract, linked to a $4.3 billion aid package pledged by the Canadian government. Westinghouse Reinforces Commitment to Ukrainian Recovery

• Why is Carney suddenly in love with China? Especially  considering last March, while campaigning,   he stated “China does not share Canadian values when it comes to trade and Canada needs to be very careful about boosting bilateral commercial ties”. Why would he choose relations with a murderous dictator rather than a eccentric cut-throat billionaire that lives next door? This is certainly not very Canadian.  Of course it has nothing to do with Brookfield. “We are one of the world's largest alternative asset managers, focused on real estate, infrastructure, renewable power and transition, private equity and credit. In Greater China we have US$23billion of assets under management.” China also has the largest Carbon Credit market.  Canada election 2025: Carney says China differs on trade values , Brookfield China 博枫 | Brookfield Asset Management

If you have been following our advice your portfolio is boring. The Investment industry does not like investors like us because we stay clear of most of their products like mutual funds and ETF’s so less commissions are generated. We also rarely trade. Specifically, there is no need to trade shares on a regular basis if your holdings have a history of dividend increases. This is one of the reasons we are willing to hold for years.  Plus, Canada has the most potential in the world. All we need is a federal government that cares for all provinces. 

Today you can earn around 2% from the money market or a Guaranteed Investment Certificate for no risk. Depending on the share price, for not much more risk, one can invest in dividend paying shares to earn a much higher return.  Based on today’s share prices our recommendations are yielding between three and six percent versus around two for a money market investment.  Based on our purchase price the yield is substantially higher. For example, Suncor recently increased their dividend 5% to $2.40 annually, creating a 8% dividend yield on initial capital. We expect all other holdings will increase their payouts over the next seven months. 

There is a long list of Canadian companies that have an excellent record of growing dividends every year.  Canadian Utilities has the best record on the TSX at 54 consecutive years of dividend increases.  We expect a small increase in the new year of only a penny quarterly.  The second-best performer is Enbridge at 53 of the past 54 years. Two Canadian banks have one of the world’s best dividend records.  The BMO has paid a dividend every year since 1828 and the Bank of Nova Scotia annually since 1833. The remaining Canadian banks have increased their payouts 49 of the past 54 years,  Atco Industries is 32 years, and Pembina Pipeline is 15 years.  National Bank has had seven dividend increases over the past three years  This is probably the best record on the TSX.  The Bank has the biggest spread between it’s per share profit and the dividend it pays out. I expect another increase over the next 6 months.

The world’s most successful stock market investor is Warren Buffet.  His company Berkshire Hathaway also prefers companies that have am excellent record of increased dividends.  He uses the income to build up the cash reserves until deals are found. Today Berkshire Hathaway’s holds  $382 billion in cash equivalents, the highest in its history.  This is bigger than the entire market cap of Procter & Gamble or Home Depot and should be alarming for most investors.

Our recommendation remains the same. Continue to build up your cash.  Depending on one’s age, place 60% of your portfolio in a GIC with terms no longer than a year.  A good rule of thumb is a percentage of your age.  If you’re in your thirties, strive for 30% cash and 60% at the age of sixty. The returns are not the greatest when rates are low, but the principal is safe and at this stage in the game, future returns will be from waiting for the market to come to you.   

A reminder that when  you trigger a capital gain, prepay CRA 25% of the gain.  The interest rate to be paid on non-corporate taxpayer overpayments is 5% (corporate rate is 3%) and will be reset March 31, 2026.  To keep track of their interest rates, follow Prescribed Interest Rates on the CRA website.

Economic history likes to repeat itself. Especially when it comes to excessive debt in the economy and wild speculation in assets. Every single time this occurred both eventually reversed itself and many got wiped out financially, and what followed was some of the best buying opportunities in history for those who were patient.

Starting in 1860 the American stock markets went on a 69-year bull market. During this time there were a few corrections (1901, 1913, 1921) that caused little damage. On the last Friday of August 1929, the NYSE hit what would be its peak at the time and a selloff quicky ensued. On the following Monday the NYSE lost $14b which in those days was unfathomable. The market declined 89.9% after finally bottoming in May 1932. This was North America’s greatest selloff on record.

The causes of the correction were too much debt, easy money, wild asset price speculation and too many non-performing loans in the economy, much like today. Eventually the Federal Reserve and other central banks attempted to stop the liquidation by withdrawing cash from their economic system. Since cash became scarce, lending dried up and the economy stalled causing the Great Depression. It was not until the spring of 1954 that the Dow Jones Industrial Average finally returned to the August 1929 high.

Today’s risk level is most likely one of the highest since the late 1920’s. Tariffs are destroying consumer discretionary income and good jobs inside and outside of America are disappearing. At the same time, most stock markets are at or near their all-time highs even though both political and economic risk continues to increase. We estimate that by mid 2026 the full effects of Trump’s tariffs will show up in corporate profits, and the markets will react accordingly.  

The above chart shows that the only time the S&P experienced a higher price-earnings ratio was during the tech bubble.  This is telling us investors believe utopia has arrived and consumers are going to go on a never-ending spending spree. These values also portray the belief that Trumps tariffs will result in prosperity even though they are destroying world trade. 

Human nature comes into play. Today they are gambling because they are going up, and people want to share in the party. But when the markets turn down it will be amazing how fast buyers disappear. It is too early to tell how bad it will get. If Trump realizes he could be destroying America and gets rid of the tariffs the economic slowdown will still last most of 2026 before a recovery.

Things like crypto, gold, and real estate will weaken, especially once interest rates start to go up during the first half of 2026. This increase could continue for years to come as the demand for new money will  skyrocket. It sounds bad but remember higher rates will benefit the saver and punish only the indebted. This is why we are always recommending keeping debt levels to a minimum.

For the next year returns will come from interest and from dividends. Continue to buy one year insured GICs. We expect interest rates in a year’s time to move higher as Ottawa will need to borrow billions and be forced to protect the value of the Loonie. We believe our recommendations will all raise their dividends again next year. Each increase will be small, but the companies will want to continue their record of annual dividend increases. Cash and holding our recomendations will outperform the market in 2026.  Just favor cash at the moment and avoid making any large stock purchase. Be patient and continue to wait for the market to come to you. 

Servicing Canada's ballooning debt now costs $2,000 per citizen, per year. According to the PBO’s latest report, interest charges on the debt alone will cost taxpayers over $55 billion this year. That is more than the federal government transfers to provinces annually for healthcare. Additionally, debt interest on the debt is projected to cost Canadians $82.4 billion annually by the end of the decade. According to the PBO, “the federal debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to increase from 41.7 per cent in 2024-25, rising above 43 per cent over the medium term.” 

On the consumer front, Canadian personal debt is at 174.9% of disposable income and is now growing faster than personal income. Young people are not taught what savings are and why they are necessary. Our economic system survives only on savings. The sooner a person begins to save and becomes dedicated to it the healthier an economy will become. 

It is obvious the Carney is not the financial genius his gullible voters thought he was. On November 4th Carney will hand down its first Federal budget, only 567 days since Canada’s last budget. He has stated that it could show an $85b deficit. But based on his recent spending, it could easily exceed $100b. Moves like this proves he does not think much about our national  finances. Why would he though when 92.7% of his money is invested in the US and only 2.7% in Canada.

Carney is showing the world he is a one-person government. His visits to world leaders is just a stop for a cup of tea and has accomplished nothing. He should be visiting business leaders from all corners of the globe. Whether you liked or disliked past PM’s they at least took businesspeople with them for the sole aim of showing Canada wanted to do business. To date only Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe has been travelling the world trying to drum up business for his province’s potash and canola. At least he understands what needs to be done whereas  Carney is only interested in getting business for central Canada and neglecting the western provinces. 

For years we have suggested Canada do a trade deal with Greenland to help them develop their resources. One area is close to our Labrador. Shipping the ore to Labrador can then be shipped to Asia from our west coast. Because Carney is one of the weakest prime ministers we have ever had, he will not even try to help Greenland because it would upset Trump who wants to take over Greenland. 

As the Govenor of the Bank of Canada Carney did not learn the most important part of the job; always protect your currency. The road to prosperity is to try and push the value of the currency higher because it results in lower inflation and interest rates naturally, both of which attract foreign investors. Carney’s deficit alone will push our dollar down to around sixty-eight cents U.S. The only potential saving grace is that Trump is also hurting the American economy and their debt is growing faster than ours. It is a situation of who is faster at destroying their country with out-of-control debt growth.  

It is criminal that Canada does not have a coast-to-coast pipeline. Six countries want to buy our natural gas but to date Carney has and is doing nothing about this. Instead, he is putting on a show for Trump who only laughs at him for his ‘do nothing’ attitude.  A liberal mouthpiece announced that the Liberal will decide on an oil pipeline in four years time. Conveniently,  the next election will be in 3.5 years. Carney is 100% dedicated Green who wants to close all oil projects in Canada while supporting them in the US via his investments in Brookfield. 

It is time for a major change. Assuming there is an early election, and we get a real government, Canada could easily be the number one country in the world to invest. Foreign investors are interested in our resource sector, our universities have received international recognition, and the banking system is known for its safety measures. The only thing blocking us is a useless Liberal government. Canada cannot afford the Liberals.

The damage from tariffs is starting to show in slowing global trade. It has not appeared yet, but the US could turn out the  biggest loser because people are avoiding U.S. goods and travel to the country.

In Canada we are beginning to feel the pain from Trump. Specifically, real GDP, which measures the total monetary value of goods and services produced in a country, declined 0.4 per cent after a 0.5 per cent gain the previous quarter,  Statistics Canada said. Annualized, the economy shrank 1.6 per cent in the second quarter, slowing from growth of two per cent in the first quarter of 2025. Exports declined by 7.5 per cent in the quarter, after rising 1.4 per cent in the first quarter. 

In this situation, foreign income is directed to Washington without providing noticeable advantages to the average American.  About the only thing it does is help Washington pay the interest on its ever-growing debt, but there will be no overall benefit for the U.S. economy unless the tariffs end in tax cuts which Trump promised.  Time will tell; however, we doubt this will occur because their debt is skyrocketing like ours, 

Global trade of goods survives on disposable income which the tariffs deplete. Because businesses pass taxes and tariffs to customers, prices are increasing and driving buyers away.   This can only get worse as people have limited savings.  The tariffs will prove to be a fast road to the poor house.

Trump’s policies are already beginning to cause job losses in Canada. Many small businesses have closed and more may soon follow.  According to the Canadian Federation of Independent Business, one in five small business owners report they will not last more than six months if the tariff status quo remains, and four in 10 (38 per cent) said they would last less than a year. This sector is the largest employer in the economy.

Trump was not lying when he said he could take us over by strangling us economically rather than by force. He is already making Canada poorer so Canadians will eventually demand we join the U.S. to avoid all those tariffs. Many people hold the view that joining the US may not align with Canada's interests; however, establishing a free-trade union with a shared currency, similar to the European Union model, could offer economic advantages for both countries.  

There is simply no way of denying it,   the US is our most important trading partner. This will never change because of our proximity to each other. And we will always rely on their military to protect our borders which costs them billions every year because the fact is our small population cannot afford to defend ourselves. We should be grateful for this, but we are not. It may be time for us to meet halfway.

Canada is divided as a nation for good reason. At the end of the day our provinces have far more in common economically and culturally with their neighbors south to them rather than those to the east and to the west. Alberta is not like BC which has much more in common with Washington state, Oregan and California. The Prairies have more in common with  Montana and North Dakota than they do Ontario because Ontario is more like Michigan and New York, and the East coast shares characteristics of Maine and surrounding states.  Quebec is on its own planet,  and to be honest, the country would benefit if Quebec was booted out of confederation. We are at the point now where all provinces should govern themselves based on their own best interests rather than having Ontario and Quebec dictate what is best for Canada as a whole.    

Outside of our natural resources, we can also stop pretending that finding trading partners across the ocean will replace the demand from the US. It never will. If anything, it is going to work against us  because it is cheaper to truck goods across the border whereas shipping goods across an ocean will increase the cost of the good  and become an incentive for manufacturing to relocate. Specifically, the time and cost of shipping across the ocean can easily be mitigated by relocating operations to the destination region.

Canada is one of the richest in the world when it comes to resources.  We have an abundance of water, farmland, forests, metals, and oil.  We also have excellent universities,  and while it is falling apart, our medical system is still admired by many nations across the globe. Other than poor leadership, there is no excuse for us to not be successful.

Carney thinks cutting time to get all necessary documents to build a project  down to around 6 years is good.  This is down from 10 to 12 years.  Most countries spend around 2 years to get all the documents.  The next election is 3.5 years away.  So, nothing will get done.  It has been 48 years of talking about building an all-season road to develop the Ring of Fire rare earth mines located in Northern Ontario.  In other words, the real problem is Liberals refuse to develop what the country has. 

Since 2015 our productivity has grown by 2% compared to 18% in the US.  This means we are not competitive and that the Liberals do not care. It also tells us that we would be better governed by the U.S.

Sadly, our political system is designed to allow Ontario and Quebec voters decide our leaders. And they continue to vote in people who are all talk and care only about themselves. To survive as a nation, we need leaders who can see a future for Canada.  Today’s bunch are intent to drag us down further.  It is time for another election. We need people who care for the future of Canada. If not, forming a union with the US would be in Canada’s best interest.